India is preparing to lift Russian crude purchases by as much as a fifth in September, ignoring Washington’s tariff offensive that has pushed duties on Indian goods to 50 per cent.
The decision underscores New Delhi’s determination to secure affordable fuel supplies even as its largest trading partner ratchets up pressure. The White House last week doubled tariffs from 25 to 50 per cent, with trade adviser Peter Navarro accusing India of “financing Putin’s war machine” through discounted oil deals.
Indian refiners show little sign of retreat. State-owned Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum have booked additional September cargoes after briefly halting in July, according to industry executives. Private refiners Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy, which together account for the bulk of India’s crude throughput, continue to honour long-term Russian supply contracts.
The economics remain clear. September barrels from Russia are priced $2–3 below international benchmarks, compared with discounts of $1.50 a month earlier. India imported 1.5m barrels per day in August, equal to 40 per cent of its crude requirements — a sharp rise from less than 1 per cent before the invasion of Ukraine. That trade now makes India Moscow’s single largest seaborne customer, underpinning roughly 1.5 per cent of global oil supply.
Moscow, meanwhile, has been forced to redirect more crude to export markets after Ukrainian drone strikes disabled an estimated 17 per cent of its refining capacity. The disruption has created a steady flow of unprocessed oil at prices Asian buyers are willing to pay.
Diplomatically, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is trying to preserve room for manoeuvre. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said this week that India would continue to “buy oil from wherever we get the best deal,” pointedly noting that European nations still import Russian energy through indirect routes. Recent talks between Modi and President Vladimir Putin underlined the strategic weight of the relationship even as New Delhi keeps channels with Washington open.
The stakes stretch beyond bilateral trade. Analysts calculate that a sudden cutback in Indian intake could remove nearly 1m barrels a day from global markets, a supply shock that would send Brent crude toward $100 a barrel. With Indian refineries running at near-maximum capacity and enjoying consistent discounts, such a pullback looks improbable.
For now, India has chosen pragmatism over pressure. Cheap Russian crude secures its energy balance, even at the cost of deeper trade friction with Washington — a choice that highlights both the opportunities and the risks of a more multipolar energy order.